Go Finance Reporting in Jakarta - The government is preparing a variety of simulated conditions of oil prices and their impact on the national economy for some time to come. This step will make the government better prepared to face the world oil price fluctuations.
Minister for National Development Planning / Head of Bappenas Alisjahbana Armida said, the influence of conflict Libya to shocks in oil prices lately is significant. Because of the impact on the national economy, the government will continue to monitor world oil price movements.
"This external shock and outside of government control. But, as far as possible we manage it well. We hope that the conflict in Libya over with, "said Armida in Jakarta yesterday.
Crude oil prices remained above yesterday's level of USD112 per barrel in Asian trade due to increasing concerns about supply due to unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. New York's main contract for delivery in April next, light sweet crude rose $ 36 cents to USD97, 64 per barrel.
Brent North Sea crude oil also rose $ 1, 26 to USD112, 62 per barrel. Armida said, despite fluctuating oil prices, the government has not intention of changing the macro assumptions in the near future.
Indonesian oil price is pegged at $ 80 per barrel level in the state budget in 2011 is assessed to be relevant because this assumption is the average annual price. The government is optimistic the violence that occurred in the Middle East and Africa quickly subsided and oil prices return to its original level.
Turbulence in the regional countries of Africa and the Middle East these days to encourage governments to think hard to maintain domestic economic stability.
To meet the demand for oil in the country, the government will begin to look to import from countries outside of Africa and the Middle East. "It could be our oil imports from Malaysia if it was difficult from the Middle East or Africa," said Armida.
The government remains wary of the economic turmoil caused by rising world oil prices. Armida explained, when oil prices rise, the cost of production and distribution of foodstuffs driven possible rise.
"That is why the policy of subsidized fuel restrictions have not decided and still be reviewed depending on the results of the study," he said.
Special Staff of the Minister of Planning / Bappenas Dedi Masykur Riyadi said, the National Development Planning Agency is conducting relevant studies and simulations of oil price fluctuations and the impact that may arise.
"While we arrange it based on current conditions and data support, but no need to panic yet," said Dedi. Related possibility of postponement of consumption restrictions on fuel oil (BBM) subsidy, further Dedi, more leads to double-impact effects (multiplier effects) on the national economy if imposed force April 2011.
He said, if forced to run, that policy will affect food prices. However, if not enforced, the burden of government subsidies will gain weight.
"Should the allocation of funds for development programs, but it ran more to the subsidy. It's hard for the government, "he said.
He predicts, probably waiting for the application of restrictions on subsidized fuel oil prices stabilized. Subsidy budget in 2011 is expected to swell as the trend of rising global oil prices and yet the realization of policy of limiting the consumption of subsidized fuel.
Budget subsidies in the 2011 state budget allocated Rp187, 624 trillion. Of that amount, the government energy subsidies allocated Rp136, 614 trillion. While non-energy subsidies in the Budget 2011 at Rp51, 010 trillion.
"The budget subsidy is expected to swell as a result of oil price hikes that have reached U.S. $ 100 per barrel and have not done programs subsidized fuel savings," said Vice Chairman of Commission XI DPR Achsanul Qosasi. (GoFinance)
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